Articulate Theory of Change

Finalize Outcomes and Develop Measures
Articulate Theory of Change

Purpose

Finalize outcome statement(s) based on insights gained in developing results chains and strategy maps.
Describe the conservation challenge, the solution, and why your organization and/or team is positioned to implement the solution in a succinct way that colleagues, partners, stakeholders and funders can understand and support.

Products

A narrative theory of change

Your theory of change (ToC) explains how and why you think your strategies will achieve its intended outcomes. Theories of change are an important ingredient for strategy development and are an essential ingredient in developing measures to assess the effectiveness of the actions you take to implement your strategy. It is the process for developing a ToC, as much as the final product, which is beneficial for developing robust outcomes and promoting a common understanding about a strategy’s impact. A ToC should clarify what changes are needed in norms and other factors in order to achieve your ultimate aim and to pursue the most efficient path to get there. Developing a ToC helps to identify potential roadblocks, leaps of logic in your thinking, assumptions to monitor, and risks to success. It also ensures that everyone on the team is operating under the same set of assumptions and can see how their actions connect to critical intermediate results and the ultimate outcome. (adapted from Evans, et al., 2005)

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Succinctly state the conservation challenge.

Succinctly state the conservation challenge using information gathered from the situation analysis and results chains.

Tools You Can Use

Annie E. Casey Foundation ToC Tool

The Annie E. Casey Foundation offers this practical tool for action, results and learning.

What is this thing called ‘Theory of Change’?

The USAID Learning Lab provides this comprehensive (and witty!) overview of Theories of Change, with links to additional useful resources.
Articulate the solution using the logic of the key steps from the results chain.

Note where logic steps currently lack evidence.

Refer back to the team’s evaluation of strength of evidence for the specific steps in the results chain for the selected strategies. Treat any steps that lacked sufficient evidence as hypotheses to be tested as a part of the strategy

Define desired outcomes.
Define desired outcomes for conservation targets and human well being interests that strategy implementation will achieve. Final outcome statements should meet or exceed the minimum goal generated previously.
Pro Tips
- Outcomes are what we will manage progress of the strategy towards and hold ourselves accountable for delivering.

A complete outcome statement includes five parts:

What we are trying to change described in specific terms, such as acres of habitat, or population size of particular targets, or meeting water quality thresholds for particular pollutants.

The magnitude of change, expressed in measurable units (either absolute units or percent change against a specified baseline).

Context for intended outcomes (e.g., geography where the change will occur)

Time frame within which the outcome or portion of an outcome is expected to occur

Specific measurable indicator that will be used to assess achievement of the result (see further discussion of indicators in measures and monitoring section).

Tools You Can Use

Center for Theory of Change

The Center for Theory of Change supports a global learning community, and offers a number of free and paid resources including example ToCs, webinars, publications and presentations.

Explain why your organization or team is well suited to implement this strategy.

Include an evaluation of your organization’s niche, strengths and weaknesses relative to other actors. There are resources available in Section 2 of the Conservation Partnership Center that can help you do this.
Explain enabling conditions.

Explain any specific enabling conditions, opportunities, or threats that make implementation of the strategy timely.

Enabling conditions
The Nature Conservancy’s Capacity Development and Partnership staff created this illustration of the Conditions for Success that are essential to the long-term sustainability of conservation initiatives.

External Resources

The Learning Network for Capacity Development

The Learning Network for Capacity Development provides guidance on the complex subject of assessing and addressing enabling conditions.

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Create enabling conditions.

If enabling conditions are currently not present, how will you create those conditions? If creation of enabling conditions is necessary, ensure that this is explicitly included as a part of the strategy.

Articulate any key assumptions that underpin the strategy.

These would be high level assumptions about the enabling conditions, timing, capacity, effectiveness, etc. that successful implementation of the strategy depends upon, but were not previously captured in development of the results chains.

Minimum Standard Questions

Is the logic describing why your strategies will lead to the stated outcomes clear, supported by strong results chains and evidence, and compelling to those reading your theory of change for the first time?

FAQS Show All

What is the difference between a theory of change and a results chain?

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