Combine the information compiled in the previous steps on assumptions about the impacts of the strategy on the same minimum goal metrics mapped in the “no strategy” (baseline, business as usual) maps. The previous step established where each strategy could touch down. This step calculates how much impact the strategy will have if enacted in those places. The timeframe used here for estimating change must be the same as that used for the business as usual/no strategy maps created previously.
Creating these maps can be a simple overlay process where you ask how much the strategy extent maps (mapped in the previous step) overlap with conservation goals (e.g. habitat to be protected) and people we intend to benefit. Alternatively, this can be as complicated as modeling non-linear responses of conservation targets to drivers, modeling multiple conservation, ecosystem service and social benefit flows, or exploring multiple climate scenarios to clearly reflect the range of possible benefits from the strategy for both nature and people.
Potential negative impacts of each strategy should also be estimated at this stage. If the results chains identified unintentional negative outcomes for other conservation elements or for people, these impacts should be quantified so strategies can be compared both on their strengths and their weaknesses.
Consider again two of our three examples of minimum goal statements from above, now with the relevant elements that might be included to create strategy impact maps for each strategy.