Conservation by Design is currently under construction. Please check back next year.

Map expected status of conservation and human goals without any strategies.

The pur­pose of this step is to paint a pic­ture of how the world would look if you did noth­ing. Too often, con­ser­va­tion tar­gets and oth­er pri­ma­ry inter­ests are in decline. In these cas­es, a con­ser­va­tion strat­e­gy could be con­sid­ered suc­cess­ful even if it only main­tains cur­rent con­di­tions as they are today. The most rel­e­vant com­par­i­son for under­stand­ing the ben­e­fit of a con­ser­va­tion strat­e­gy is in com­par­i­son with a “do noth­ing” world. In some con­texts, this is referred to as a ‘base­line sce­nario’ or ‘busi­ness as usu­al’ abbre­vi­at­ed as BAU.

Map the expect­ed future dis­tri­b­u­tion and sta­tus of each con­ser­va­tion (e.g. fish species diver­si­ty by riv­er reach) and human well-being inter­est (e.g. drink­ing water qual­i­ty, fire fre­quen­cy near res­i­den­tial areas, air pol­lu­tion in high pop­u­la­tion den­si­ty areas) iden­ti­fied in your min­i­mum goal state­ment. Also map the sta­tus of any ele­ments iden­ti­fied in your results chains as poten­tial risks (e.g. non-tar­get species that may be neg­a­tive­ly affect­ed by restora­tion, low income neigh­bor­hoods that may be neg­a­tive­ly affect­ed by altered access to an urban park, non-engaged indige­nous com­mu­ni­ties that may be harmed by engage­ment with oth­er indige­nous communities).

This map(s) should be for­ward look­ing over the peri­od of time you have iden­ti­fied in the scop­ing phase (e.g. if your min­i­mum goals were set for a 5 year time hori­zon, this map should reflect how you think con­di­tions will look in 5 years). Pro­jec­tions of some use­ful infor­ma­tion may be for longer time peri­ods, so you may choose to use a longer time frame for this analy­sis. But please note, you must use the same time frame for all data sets and all maps in this step of Cbd 2.0 (strat­e­gy and oppor­tu­ni­ty map­ping) and have a means to adjust the impacts you esti­mate back to the time­frame of your min­i­mum goal statement.

Con­sid­er the fol­low­ing three illus­tra­tive exam­ples of min­i­mum goal state­ments, and rel­e­vant ele­ments that might be includ­ed to cre­ate ‘busi­ness as usu­al’ maps for them.